Recently, the rumor that the real estate policy in first-tier cities will be tightened has been confirmed, Shanghai and Shenzhen successively issued new policies to regulate the real estate market. They include raising the proportion of down payment loans, raising the threshold for non-residents to buy houses, strengthening the administration of intermediaries, and strictly controlling the use of capital leverage in house purchases.
Industry insiders believe that the fundamental reason for the new policies in first-tier cities is to stabilize the recent excessively rapid rise in housing prices and crack down on the increasing speculative buying behavior. Therefore, from the perspective of policy, the policy direction in the future will no longer be one-way easing, but a two-way "bottom covering". With the exception of cities such as Shanghai and Shenzhen that have grown too fast, the regulatory policies in other cities will not be too stringent.
Send a line of new property policies
Shenzhen will tighten the threshold for non-household residents to buy homes and implement differentiated housing credit policies, according to the guidelines on improving the Housing Security System and Promoting the Steady and healthy Development of the real estate market released overnight Tuesday.
The decision on the eligibility of non-residents should be increased to three years from the date when they can provide a certificate that they have paid personal income tax or social insurance continuously in the previous year or more calculated from the date of purchase, and the purchase of a house should be limited to one apartment, the opinion said. The restriction on the purchase of two housing units will continue to apply to households with household registration (including those whose family members are municipal household registration residents).
At the same time, in the credit policy, the implementation of differential credit. If the purchaser's family has no house in this city and has no housing loan record in the past two years, the minimum down payment ratio of the loan shall continue to be implemented; For those who have no houses under the name of the purchaser but have housing loan records in the past two years or have an apartment in the municipality but have settled the corresponding housing loan, the down payment ratio of the loan shall be at least 40%.
It is worth noting that on the same day, Shanghai also issued what has been called the most stringent regulation policy in history, the "Nine Points of Shanghai". "Hu Jiu jiu" pointed out that the housing purchase restriction policy will be strictly enforced. Among them, the time limit for households with non-municipal household registration to pay individual income tax or social insurance for house purchase will be increased, the city will pay more than 2 years accumulatively in the first 3 years from the date of house purchase, and it will be adjusted to pay more than 5 years continuously before the date of house purchase. In terms of enterprises, the re-listing of the purchased commodity housing shall take at least 3 years. If the transaction object is an individual, the purchase restriction policy of this municipality shall be implemented.
In the credit policy, the implementation of the "housing do not recognize the loan." According to the guideline, if a family owns a home and applies for a commercial housing loan again to buy an ordinary home for the purpose of improving its living conditions, the down payment shall be no less than 50%. For a household that owns a house and applies for a commercial individual housing loan again to buy a non-ordinary self-owned house in order to improve its living conditions, the down payment shall not be less than 70%. "Hu 9" point out, when the person that buy a house applies for loan, should promise the down payment is own capital, if break promise, be brought into this city as information of discredit behavior public credit information service platform.
It is reported, Housing of Shanghai common commodity should satisfy a piece at the same time the area is 140 square metre below, actual clinking price is lower than the housing on the average trade price on same class land 1.44 times below, and total price outside outer ring does not exceed 2.3 million yuan per set, between inside ring does not exceed 3.1 million yuan per set, inside ring does not exceed 4.5 million yuan per set.
To this, Shanghai's housing urban construction management committee director Gu Jinshan said, since the second half of last year, especially in 2016, the Shanghai real estate market overheating appeared irrational emotions, house prices formed the accelerating trend, as well as investment and speculative demand resurgence, part of the enterprise and employees violate compasses operation, etc. Some new situations and new problems. Therefore, as a special commodity, housing needs to maintain market order and stabilize market expectations.
Adjusting "deleveraging" as a policy priority
It is worth noting that in this round of policies, the use of capital leverage to pay down payments is prohibited. "Hu Jiu jiu" clearly states that real estate development enterprises and real estate intermediaries are strictly prohibited from engaging in over-the-counter capital matching financial businesses such as down payment loans, bridge loans, self-financing, self-guarantee and capital pool. We will carry out special campaigns against all kinds of informal financial institutions that provide various forms of financial services for real estate transactions.
Shenzhen this New Deal, also clearly said to strengthen the real estate financial risk prevention and control. Combined with the preliminary screening of down payment loan risks in the city, we will continue to conduct the screening and special rectification of financial risks in the city, and prohibit Internet financial enterprises, small loan companies and other financial institutions from engaging in financial leverage matching businesses such as down payment loans, crowd-funded house purchases, bridge loans and so on.
"The focus of this new real estate deal is' deleveraging. '" Yahao institutional marketing director guo yi believes that the HOME LINK incident exposed the use of leverage in the real estate market to reduce the abnormal phenomenon of real estate inventory, off-market capital business further rise. However, the enlarged capital leverage is likely to lead to a bigger bubble in the real estate market, which poses huge potential financial risks and causes the decision makers to pay great attention to it.
Gu Jinshan also said that some enterprises operate illegally, some developers, intermediaries through P2P platform launched the down payment loan and other off-market financing business, so that some people who did not have the conditions to buy a second home, through the down payment loan, bridge loan into the market or in advance. This part of the operation has played a big push to the market, while promoting, capital and speculation, increased financial risk.
Indeed, the off-market matching funds that often appeared in the stock market before are now appearing in the real estate market, with financial products such as crowdfunding for house purchase and down-payment loans erupting intensively. Take worldcom, a listed intermediary institution that makes down-payment loans and other small loan financial products like HOME LINK real estate as an example. Its 2015 annual report shows that the company issued a total of 32,209 "home cloud loans" last year, with the mortgage amount of 2.992 billion yuan, up 65.05% and 51.90% year-on-year respectively.
Consumer loans, often used for down payments, are surging. Yuan consumer loans in Beijing rose 23.47 billion yuan in January, up 5.39 billion yuan from a year earlier, according to the People's Bank of China. Operating loans increased by 990 million yuan, down by 1.76 billion yuan year-on-year. Among them, personal housing loans increased by 17.62 billion yuan, 5.89 billion yuan year-on-year.
Meanwhile, according to two sets of data from HOME LINK real estate monitoring, among the second-hand houses sold in 2015, the proportion of those with a holding period of less than two years accounted for about 25%, and those with a holding period of two years but less than five years accounted for about 32%. Nearly two months of housing change hands more frequently, nearly two months of transactions in the second-hand housing, the owner holding time less than half a year of the proportion as high as 8%.
Beijing is expected to follow suit
Zhongyuan real estate market director Zhang Dawei believes that in addition to Shanghai, Shenzhen, Beijing and some of the second-tier key cities tightening is also a probability event. In fact, on the 27th, the media reported that the Government of Langfang disclosed that in order to stabilize the housing price in the counties (cities) around Beijing and promote the steady and healthy development of the real estate industry, The city of Langfang has studied some measures to further regulate the market order and stabilize the housing price. The specific measures are being examined and approved in the process and will be published soon.
But That does not mean property policy will be tightened across the board, Mr Zhang said. The real estate market has entered a new normal. Even in the case of rapid rise in some cities, the inventory pressure in most third - and fourth-tier cities is still very large, and differentiation will still be the main feature of the subsequent market. As a result, the policy direction of the future will no longer be one-way easing, but a two-way "floor cap".
Indeed, Since last year, China has adopted the "March 30 New Policy" and "September 30 New Policy" for the real estate industry, which has released good news for the real estate industry. Since then, the market has diverged: the housing price in first-tier cities rose sharply again, and the housing price in some second-tier cities followed the trend, while the housing price in third-tier and fourth-tier cities remained depressed.
The latest data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that against the backdrop of massive de-stocking in first-tier cities and some second-tier cities, the real estate inventory reached 718 million square meters at the end of 2015, up 15.6% year on year. From January to February 2016, the inventory reached 739 million square meters, with a growth rate of 15.7%. This means that the inventory is mainly concentrated in third - and fourth-tier cities.
In fact, the concrete plan to replace the business tax with a VALUE-ADDED tax recently clearly divides the first-tier cities and non-first-tier cities. For example, the pilot program to replace the business tax with a value-added tax stipulates clearly on the purchase of second-hand houses by individuals. For non-first-tier cities, individuals who purchase houses less than 2 years old for sale will pay VAT in full at the rate of 5%. Individuals who will buy houses for more than 2 years (including 2 years) for foreign sales shall be exempted from VAT; In the four first-tier cities of Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen, individuals who buy houses for sale for less than 2 years will pay VAT in full at the rate of 5%. If an individual purchases a non-ordinary house for more than 2 years (including 2 years) for external sale, the VAT shall be levied at the rate of 5% on the difference between the sales income and the purchase price of the house; Individuals who will buy ordinary houses for more than 2 years (including 2 years) for sale to the outside world shall be exempt from VAT.
Category: Industry News
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