Shanghai has just adjusted the standard of the definition of ordinary commercial housing, causing a heated debate.
The launch of the new "market rescue" policy at this time, though not sensitive, is just right. It is right after the central bank relaxed the loan restriction policy and the Executive meeting of The State Council clarified the time of housing consumption. This is not only Shanghai's response to the call of the central government, but also the decision of supporting the central government.
The last time Shanghai adjusted the standard of ordinary commodity housing was in March 2012. In theory, the standard of ordinary commodity housing should be adjusted regularly according to the actual situation. It should be reasonable to adjust the standard for two or three years, which is also a routine practice of Shanghai's administration according to law. The market situation in the first half of the year does not actually support this adjustment, now is the right time to adjust.
The cancellation of the loan restriction policy by the Central bank is to release the demand for improved housing of the existing population, while the relaxation of the standard for ordinary commercial housing in Shanghai is also aimed at the demand for improved housing, which stabilizes the demand for improved housing and thus the real estate market. Kill three birds with one stone.
Comment: Don't expect a mid - to short-term rebound in house prices
There is no need to expect a short-term rebound in house prices, let alone a chance to wait for the policy to support the market, when the market trend has gradually become clear, any adverse market support behavior, ultimately will only be a manic arm when the car.
Since the second half of this year, a series of policies to support the market, but still failed to reverse the increasingly bleak housing market data. On November 18, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed that in October, the price of newly built commercial housing in 70 major cities did not rise month on month, and the year-on-year decline was even more for two consecutive months and the decline was extended to 2.62%.
Although some market participants are still lucky, citing "month-on-month price decline in October narrowed" and "policy support for the market will continue", they believe that the housing price has entered a stage of bottoming out and rising, but as long as we have a rational thinking, we will find that the above two factors are not able to withstand close scrutiny.
First of all, the market price trend can not be a straight line, in a certain range, has always been in the shock consolidation looking for trends. In light of this, it is overly optimistic to think that house prices have entered the stage of bottoming out and rising on the basis of "the month-on-month decline of house prices in October has narrowed". What's more, house prices in October are still falling month-on-month and the year-on-year decline is even greater.
Category: Industry News
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