Abstract: According to the Outline, during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, the total amount of new construction land will be limited to 32.56 million mu, which means that the total amount of new construction land will drop by 17% under the background of strong land demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period. Compared with the interests and difficulties involved in the transformation of different uses of land and planning, Zhang hongwei said that the transformation of real estate land into rundown housing and public rental housing is more feasible.

 

 

 

On April 14, the 21st Century economic Report reporter learned from the Ministry of Land and Resources that the "13th Five-Year Plan" was officially issued (hereinafter referred to as "the Outline").

 

 

 

According to the data from the Ministry of Land and Resources, during the 12th Five-Year Plan period, 39.25 million mu of new construction land was allocated nationwide. During the 12th Five-year Plan period, the construction land in cities and towns increased by about 20%, much higher than the 11% increase of urban population in the same period. The average GDP of cities and towns was only 1/5~1/4 of that of Europe and America.

 

 

 

According to the Outline, the total amount of new construction land will be limited to 32.56 million mu during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, which means that the total amount of new construction land will drop by 17% in spite of strong land demand during the 13th Five-Year Plan period.

 

 

 

The Outline also clarifies the direction and principles of real estate land use during the 13th Five-Year Plan period, and proposes to appropriately increase the scale of land use in areas where housing supply and demand are strained. For cities with high real estate inventory, the supply of land for housing should be reduced until it is stopped.

 

 

 

Local fiscal pressure may increase

 

 

 

As early as in 2015, according to current situation of real estate to inventory, the ministry and ministry of jointly issued on the optimization of the structure of housing and land supply in 2015 to promote the real estate market stable healthy development of the notice, to the housing supply was noticeably more city, county, or under construction of residential land scale of city and county, should reduce housing land supply plan supply until suspended.

 

 

 

According to the incomplete statistics of 21st Century Business Herald, more than 10 provinces and cities, including Hainan, Liaoning and Hunan, have issued the approval for residential land use in areas with high inventory reduction or even suspension, and explicitly allow the land use for real estate projects not yet started to be changed in accordance with relevant regulations.

 

 

 

Hu Zhigang, vice president of the China Real Estate Society, said reducing land supply is also an effective measure to ease supply and demand. Destocking of real estate land has been written into the outline of the 13th Five-Year Plan for land resources, which also means that destocking will become a long-term policy direction throughout the five years.

 

 

 

"Beijing and other first-tier cities are in a tight supply-demand relationship, and mega-cities are required to strictly control new construction land, making it difficult to appropriately increase the scale of land use. In places that rely heavily on land finance, there is a widespread problem of destocking. Reducing or even suspending the supply of land for housing will also bring great pressure to local finance." In the opinion of Zhang Hongwei (blog), director of the Same Policy Research Institute, as a direction-oriented document, the Outline has problems to be solved.

 

 

 

Chen Min, general manager of Beijing Rong Bangrui Ming, believes that reducing or even suspending the supply of real estate land in regions with large inventories is in line with the direction of structural reform of the land supply side, but it also requires supporting reform of the fiscal and tax system, since land sale is still an important source of fiscal revenue in many regions.

 

 

 

"Land income is an important source of land income in many areas. The temporary suspension or even reduction of land supply is also in line with the current direction of real estate land use. In addition, we can also guard against local and systemic financial risks. After all, when the inventory is large, the auction may fail and the sales may not be successful even if the land is pushed forward. But in the long run, we still need to expand local tax sources." An anonymous large real estate company to take land director told the 21st Century Business Herald reporters.

 

 

 

On April 5, the Ministry of Finance released the National Revenue and Expenditure of Land Transfer in 2015, showing that the national revenue of land transfer in 2015 was 3.365.773 trillion yuan, down 21.6 percent year-on-year. The total area of land transferred in China was 22,400 hectares, down 18.6% year on year. Moreover, there are obvious differences. For example, land transfer revenue in Shenzhen increased by 36.9%, that in Dalian decreased by 56.4%, and that in Ningbo decreased by 54.1%.

 

 

 

Research on the Contribution rate of The Real Estate Industry to Fiscal Revenue in 2015 released by E-House (Blog) Real Estate Research Institute also shows that the total income from the "five taxes" of the real estate industry in 2015 was about 1331.58 billion yuan, down 3.6 percentage points from 2014, and the growth rate changed from positive to negative for the first time in nearly 15 years.

 

 

 

Land conversion faces legal obstacles

 

 

 

Another policy direction in which the Outline focuses on de-stocking of real estate land is to allow land used for real estate projects that have not yet started to be used to replace rundown housing and public rental housing in accordance with relevant regulations to be reused. This is slightly different from the previous caliber.

 

 

 

The notice, issued jointly by the ministry of Land and The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development, also gives an opening to land use controls, saying that cities and counties with 'significantly too much real estate supply or too much land under construction can guide the transformation and utilization of undeveloped real estate land by adjusting land use and planning conditions in light of market conditions.'

 

 

 

In addition to be converted into PengGai housing and public rental housing construction, the notice also the conditions can be adjusted through land use and planning, the transition guide undeveloped real estate land use, for countries to support the emerging industries, pension industry, cultural industry, sports industry the development and construction of projects such as purpose, promote other industries investment.

 

 

 

The inventory reduction documents issued in many places also put forward that the structural inventory problem of real estate can be solved through the use of conversion. For example, the new real estate policy issued in February in Hainan province clearly encourages the unstarted commercial residential land to be converted into tourist real estate, commercial real estate and other commercial real estate land, and will not continue to be used for the development of ordinary commercial residential buildings.

 

 

 

Liaoning's recent new policy on destocking also makes it clear that by adjusting land use and planning conditions, undeveloped real estate land will be guided to transform and be used for the development and construction of state-supported projects such as emerging industries, old-age care industries, cultural industries and sports industries.

 

 

 

Also told 21st century economic report reporter zhang hongwei, while allowing land degeneration, but the lack of relevant operating rules, according to the existing land use control request, the land use conversion, planning directly bring is the change of land value, how to examine and approve, how to coordinate interests, is currently the industry has not yet been heard about the actual landing.

 

 

 

Compared with the interests and difficulties involved in the transformation of different uses of land and planning, Zhang hongwei said that the transformation of real estate land into rundown housing and public rental housing is more feasible.

 

 

 

According to the current "Land Management Law", land use control must be strictly implemented. Although there is a huge demand for land use conversion in local areas, there are still obstacles in the implementation of the law.